Overview
- The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab poll found 61% of likely midterm voters initially backed Amendment 3 but support fell to 45% and opposition rose to 47% after respondents were told of an $11.86 billion projected local revenue loss.
- The $11.86 billion figure comes from the Florida Legislature’s nonpartisan Office of Economic and Demographic Research and was the description used in the poll’s informed scenario.
- Amendment 3 would raise homestead exemptions to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, exclude school levies, allow portability of the exemption, cap non‑homestead assessment growth at 5% a year, and restrict local property tax funding to specified core services.
- County and state analyses show uneven effects with commuter and less commercial counties hit hardest proportionally and large urban counties taking the biggest dollar losses, for example Miami‑Dade is estimated to lose about $445 million in early years.
- Political organizing is shifting the campaign: opposition committees have formed while no unified pro‑Amendment campaign has emerged, key Republicans including Gov. Ron DeSantis have distanced themselves from the legislative product, and support remains far stronger among Republicans than Democrats.