Overview
- National Police Chiefs’ Council modelling predicts a 4–6% rise in recorded crime in the first year if the sentencing reforms proceed.
- Forces say this could equate to roughly 396,000 additional offences and £300m–£400m in currently unfunded policing costs.
- The Sentencing Bill would create a presumption against custodial terms under 12 months and expand earlier release with community supervision and electronic monitoring.
- The Probation Service is recruiting about 1,500 officers a year, while peers warn tagging use may double and existing monitoring capacity and contractor performance could fall short.
- The Ministry of Justice cites plans for 14,000 new prison places and a £700m three‑year probation boost, as police search for two inmates wrongly released from Wandsworth.