Overview
- Published in The Lancet Planetary Health, the model estimates annual health losses rising from 2.1 million DALYs in 2016 to 4.5 million in 2040 under business as usual.
- Across 2016–2040, the plastics system is projected to account for roughly 83 million years of healthy life lost globally.
- Greenhouse-gas-driven warming contributes about 40% of the projected harms, with production-linked air pollution at 32% and toxic chemicals at 27%.
- Primary plastics production and open burning emerge as the largest lifecycle hotspots for health damage in all scenarios.
- Standalone boosts to collection or recycling show limited gains, while a full-system approach with production limits cuts the 2040 burden by about 43%, though data gaps and industry non-disclosure constrain precision and drive calls for mandatory transparency and coordinated global policy.