Overview
- YouGov’s Wales poll of 1,220 adults (Jan 5–12) puts Plaid on 37%, Reform 23%, Greens 13%, Labour 10% and Conservatives 10%.
- On current numbers, the expanded Senedd would be projected as Plaid 45 seats, Reform 23, Greens 11, Labour 8, Conservatives 6 and Liberal Democrats 3.
- The Greens rise to third for the first time and, from zero representation, are modeled to win 11 seats under the proportional system.
- Two separate projection models suggest First Minister Eluned Morgan could fail to secure re-election in the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency.
- A parallel Westminster voting-intention model shows Plaid at 29% and Reform at 25% in Wales, with Labour at 13%, as parties stress the results are a snapshot ahead of May 7.