Overview
- New data show visible global crude and product stocks fell in May at about 8.7 million barrels per day, a near-record pace reported by Goldman Sachs.
- Goldman analysts estimate exports through the Strait of Hormuz are roughly five percent of normal, keeping physical supply tightly constrained.
- ExxonMobil’s CEO and the IEA warn the market has not priced the full damage and that normal flows could take weeks to months to restore after any reopening.
- U.S. crude exports have risen toward 5.2 million barrels per day while U.S. commercial stocks and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve have been drawn down sharply, straining replacement capacity.
- Because much of the buffer was oil 'on the water,' tankers and cargos must be repositioned and refilled, which means higher gasoline, jet-fuel and transport costs could arrive with a delay and persist until inventories are rebuilt.