Overview
- PFF published a regression list Thursday based on a new “net luck” model that examined every quarterback throw from 2016 through 2025 and separates turnover-worthy from non-turnover-worthy throws.
- The study finds about 88% of single-season interception deviation reverts toward the mean the following year, meaning extreme one-season luck usually does not persist.
- Stafford recorded two extreme positive net-luck seasons in a row, +7.3 in 2024 and +6.8 in 2025, producing far fewer interceptions than the model’s league-average conversion rates would predict.
- PFF’s play-level breakdown shows Stafford had 21 turnover-worthy throws in 2025 but only eight interceptions plus nine dropped would-be picks, a profile that league-average rates would likely have converted into roughly 15–16 interceptions.
- Analysts warn that if Stafford’s interception totals rise in 2026 the Rams could see measurable drops in scoring and win probability, and PFF also lists other quarterbacks such as Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, Dak Prescott, and Baker Mayfield as notable regression risks.