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last mo.

Peso Rises to About 1,500 After June Shift in Central-Bank Tactics

A slowdown in reserve purchases and bigger use of futures and dollar-linked bonds has eased direct reserve sales but left markets expecting a slow depreciation and a key external payment test.

Tras semanas de tensas negociaciones, se cerró la paritaria de la industria aceitera.
El edificio de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores es fotografiado en Ciudad de México, México, el 4 de abril de 2025. REUTERS/Raquel Cunha/Foto de archivo.
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El dólar oficial cotiza a $1500 y acumula una suba de casi 5% en junio

Overview

  • The official peso climbed roughly 5% in June to near ARS 1,500 retail and ARS 1,482 wholesale as seasonal demand from payrolls and a drop in agroexport inflows reduced dollar supply.
  • The Central Bank cut the pace of net foreign-currency purchases in June to about USD 1.37 billion for the month and used futures and dollar-linked bond operations more intensively to smooth FX moves without large reserve sales.
  • Sovereign dollar bonds rallied late in June and credit upgrades from S&P and Fitch helped push the JP Morgan country-risk measure down to the mid-420s, improving market access and investor sentiment.
  • The Treasury rolled over about 81% of ARS 16.2 trillion maturing paper, putting roughly ARS 3 trillion into the market and adding short-term peso liquidity that pressured carry-trade returns.
  • Markets are watching a USD 4.2–4.5 billion external amortization due July 9 and IMF amortizations in August and September as the next tests of reserves and the effectiveness of non-reserve interventions.