Overview
- An aggregate of projections compiled by Forbes/La República places 2026 GDP growth in a 2.6%–3.6% band, with BCRP at about 3.3%, MEF 3.2%, OECD 2.8%, IMF 2.7% and the World Bank 2.5%.
- Strong private investment in 2025—estimated by the central bank at up to 9.5% growth with consumption up 3.6%—provides carry-over support to activity.
- Economists warn that recent populist measures have eroded fiscal institutions, with the 2025 deficit staying above target and proposals to tap international reserves seen as damaging to central bank credibility.
- Election-period uncertainty is expected to restrain private investment and could trigger politically driven public spending that widens imbalances.
- Structural bottlenecks—low productivity, heavy permitting and poor public project execution, with about half of projects since 2012 stalled or abandoned—cap medium-term growth potential.