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last mo.

Peru Keeps Coastal El Niño Alert With Persistence Expected Into Early 2027

Raised odds for a basin‑wide El Niño later in 2026 put a premium on early preparation in Peru.

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En zonas alejadas de la costa, como el Cercado de Lima, La Molina o Surco, el sol sale temprano y el cielo luce despejado.
Esto, a pesar de que el Ejecutivo declaró hace más de dos meses el estado de emergencia por amenaza de lluvias intensas y el Enfen confirmó el último jueves que se mantiene el estado de “Alerta de El Niño Costero”. En la provincia de Trujillo la mayoría de comunas distritales solo ejecutó el 30% de sus recursos.

Overview

  • ENFEN, which issued its latest communication Friday, said the ongoing Coastal El Niño will most likely stay weak through at least January 2027 with a credible chance of reaching moderate strength in June or July.
  • Peru’s scientists also flagged warming in the central Pacific (the Niño 3.4 region) from June, opening the door to a global El Niño that could start weak and possibly build to moderate toward November–December.
  • International outlooks have lifted probabilities, with JP Morgan estimating about an 88% chance of El Niño for November–January 2027 and roughly a 50% combined chance of a strong or stronger event, while experts still urge caution given forecast uncertainty.
  • Near-term impacts in Peru include warmer-than-normal coastal air temperatures, cold early mornings but midday warming in Lima, localized heavier rains on the north coast, mostly normal river flows except in the south, and lower anchoveta catches due to closures for high juvenile presence.
  • Peru’s finance ministry estimates a weak-to-moderate Coastal El Niño could trim GDP growth by 0.2 to 0.5 percentage points, and ENFEN advises authorities to prepare now for the September 2026 to April 2027 rainy season.