Overview
- ENFEN says the coastal El Niño will likely last through December 2026 with a mostly weak phase and a chance of moderate strength between May and July.
- Forecasters cite arriving cold and then warm Kelvin waves and recent wind shifts as drivers that could briefly cool the sea before new warming pulses raise temperatures again.
- INDECI reports 33,204 people displaced, 218,359 affected and 84 deaths nationwide, with the heaviest damage in Áncash, Huánuco, Pasco and Cusco.
- SENAMHI expects above‑normal rain on the north coast through May, and ENFEN warns that even lighter April rains can trigger landslides because soils are already saturated.
- CENEPRED flags 42,949 population centers at very high landslide risk and 5,515 at very high flood risk, exposing 24,941 schools to mass‑movement hazards and threatening class continuity.