Overview
- Peru’s ENFEN and civil defense agency Indeci, in a March 27 technical bulletin, kept the Coastal El Niño alert in force through December 2026.
- The commission says the coastal event is weak now but could reach moderate strength between May and July.
- In the central Pacific (Niño 3.4), models favor neutral conditions through June with a higher chance of El Niño beginning in July.
- Forecasts for April to June call for normal to above-normal rain on the north coast, especially in April, with coastal air temperatures above average that can heighten flood risk.
- Mexico’s weather service reports a shift from La Niña toward El Niño with rising odds by mid-2026, and specialists warn Chiapas could face intense rains, stronger hurricanes, and flooding.