Overview
- Peru’s ENFEN reports a developing Niño costero of weak magnitude, centered in the Niño 1+2 region off the northern and central coast.
- Sea surface temperatures have surpassed warm thresholds at multiple sites, including Paita at +0.7 °C and Chicama at +3.4 °C above average.
- Formal El Niño criteria require three consecutive months of ≥ +0.5 °C anomalies, which could be satisfied in April if current warmth persists.
- Two downwelling Kelvin waves are projected to arrive between March and May, while a sustained relaxation of the trade winds has not yet emerged.
- Global models from NOAA, Australia’s BOM and ECMWF raise the probability of El Niño later in 2026 with low confidence during the spring barrier, and a moderate coastal event would heighten risks to fisheries, agroexports, tourism and textiles, according to Scotiabank.