Overview
- Peruvian business expectations moved decisively into optimistic territory in June 2026, with the BCRP survey showing the three‑month economy indicator rising to 55.5 points and the 12‑month indicator to 68.6 points.
- Business leaders and the MEF linked the June upswing to the presidential runoff result, and the finance minister said higher confidence should support private consumption and investment.
- Lima's annual inflation remained above the central bank target at 4.01% in June 2026, and professional and market agents expect inflation to return toward target only over 2027–28.
- Mexico's consumer confidence rose modestly to 43.8 points in June 2026, a 0.4‑point monthly gain driven by lower inflation and seasonal demand, but the index is 1.8 points below June 2025 and marks 18 consecutive months of year‑on‑year contraction.
- Analysts warn the sentiment gains may be fragile because some Peruvian real‑time indicators show mixed sales and rising unwanted inventories and Mexico faces a cooling labor market and trade‑policy uncertainty that could curb sustained recovery.