Overview
- The Potsdam Institute analysis shows the warming rate rising from about 0.2°C per decade (1970–2015) to roughly 0.35°C per decade over the past decade.
- The finding is consistent across five global temperature datasets and is reported with over 98% statistical confidence.
- The acceleration appears to have begun around 2013–2014, according to the study published in Geophysical Research Letters.
- Even after adjusting for El Niño, volcanic eruptions and solar cycles, 2024 remains the warmest year in the instrumental record.
- If the current pace continues, researchers say the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit is likely to be exceeded before 2030, with estimates around 2028–2029.
- Authors focus on trend detection rather than causes, while independent experts call the method sound and note reduced aerosol cooling as a possible contributor under discussion.