Overview
- Researchers estimate the recent warming pace at roughly 0.35°C per decade, up from just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015.
- The finding is consistent across five major temperature records (NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, ERA5) and becomes visible starting around 2013–2015.
- Authors emphasize they detected acceleration statistically rather than attributing causes, with 2023 and 2024 still the warmest years even after adjustments.
- If the current rate persists, scientists say the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold could be crossed before 2030, noting that single-year exceedances do not constitute the formal benchmark.
- Several experts welcome the evidence but caution that removing natural variability is imperfect and that reduced cooling from tightened shipping sulphur rules may be a contributing factor whose influence could be transient.