Overview
- A peer-reviewed reexamination challenged the Nature Human Behavior paper’s headline figure, showing the 72 percent increase in past-year suicide attempts depended on data from a single state with only about 60–100 youth in the relevant subgroup.
- Critics found the analysis used survey data from a period before the cited ‘anti-trans’ law was in effect, which breaks the timing needed to support a causal link between the law and suicide attempts.
- Researchers also ran the study’s statistical model against outcomes the law could not plausibly affect, such as homelessness and employment, and the model returned similar false-positive signals that suggest unmeasured factors may explain the association.
- The Trevor Project has defended its interpretation and the study’s relevance while journals have published the critique, leaving the dispute active over whether the original paper still justifies strong causal claims used in headlines and guidance.
- The study’s wide media amplification and citation in professional education mean the critique could prompt journals, medical groups, and policymakers to re-evaluate how the findings have been used in advocacy, clinical training, and legislative debates.