Overview
- A Texas Public Opinion Research poll of likely Republican runoff voters shows Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn 48% to 40%, with 11% undecided ahead of the May 26 election.
- Modeling in the survey finds a Trump endorsement would not erase Cornyn’s deficit, with Paxton still up 45% to 42%, while an endorsement for Paxton would expand his advantage to 55% to 35%.
- Paxton holds edges with men, voters without a college degree, Latino voters, and Texans under 65, while Cornyn posts narrow leads with seniors and college-educated voters.
- Voters who backed Wesley Hunt in the first round now break toward Paxton by 45% to 32%, suggesting Paxton is consolidating support from rivals’ camps.
- The poll flags potential crossover in November, with 24% of Cornyn voters saying they would likely back Democrat James Talarico if Paxton is the nominee, compared with 10% of Paxton voters saying they would back Talarico if Cornyn wins.