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Paxton Holds One-Point Lead Over Talarico in New Texas Senate Poll

Strong Republican consolidation behind Paxton could trigger heavy outside spending, keeping the race volatile through November.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton walks outside the U.S. Capitol building on Capitol Hill, in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 3, 2026.
Elías Valverde II/The Dallas Morning News via Getty Images, Jordan Vonderhaar/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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Overview

  • A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released Tuesday shows Ken Paxton ahead 43% to 42% over James Talarico, a one-point margin inside the survey’s roughly +/-2.8–3.5% margin of error.
  • The poll finds 84% of Republican voters say they would back Paxton today, a sharp jump from April that reflects party consolidation after his May 26 primary victory and President Trump’s endorsement.
  • Talarico retains major financial advantages, having raised about $40.2 million in the primary with roughly $9.8 million cash on hand at the end of March, and he leads many independents and younger and female voters in the UT data.
  • Democrats plan to emphasize Paxton’s legal and ethics history, including a past securities fraud indictment and a 2023 impeachment in the Texas House followed by acquittal in the Senate, while Republicans attack Talarico on policy and personal controversies.
  • Partisan and consultant polls show similar narrow margins for Paxton but differ in size and likely‑voter samples, signaling continued volatility and that turnout, independent voters, and heavy outside spending will likely decide the race.