Overview
- A University of Houston survey released Tuesday shows Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn 48% to 45% among likely Republican runoff voters, with 7% undecided and a ±2.83% margin of error.
- Cornyn and allied groups have vastly outspent Paxton, and filings show Cornyn with about $11 million on hand as major Paxton backers hold back cash for November, leaving Paxton with roughly $13.5 million raised between his campaign and a supporting committee.
- Trump has not endorsed in the race despite signaling he would, with in‑person early voting beginning May 18 and the May 26 runoff deciding who faces Democrat James Talarico.
- Paxton’s edge reflects turnout from Wesley Hunt’s March supporters and voters without four‑year degrees, while Cornyn leads among college‑educated Republicans and those prioritizing inflation and the economy.
- General election stakes are rising as recent polls show Talarico competitive or ahead of both Republicans, and the UH poll finds GOP voters split 43% to 43% on which nominee would be stronger in November; separate UH findings show Mayes Middleton leading Chip Roy for attorney general and uncertainty lingering in the Railroad Commission race.