Overview
- The University of Houston poll, released Tuesday, shows Ken Paxton at 48% and John Cornyn at 45% among likely Republican runoff voters, with 7% undecided and a ±2.83 point margin of error.
- Early voting begins May 18 in Texas, with the Republican runoff set for May 26 to decide who faces Democrat James Talarico in November.
- Most March primary voters plan to stick with their original pick, while supporters of third-place finisher Wesley Hunt now favor Paxton 54% to 35%, making turnout of those blocs pivotal.
- Paxton performs best with voters focused on immigration or election integrity and with those without a four‑year degree, while Cornyn leads among college graduates and voters who prioritize inflation or the economy.
- President Donald Trump has not endorsed in the race, leaving a key cue unresolved as Cornyn benefits from a cash advantage and some longtime Paxton megadonors sit out, a dynamic that looms large with recent polls putting James Talarico ahead in general-election matchups.