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Paxton, Crockett Lead Latest Texas Senate Primary Poll as Early Voting Nears

The University of Houston survey signals a GOP runoff, underscoring Democratic turmoil over credibility and endorsements.

From left: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn. Paxton is challenging Cornyn in the Republican primary.
Top from left: Ken Paxton and incumbent John Cornyn, Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. Lower from left: Democratic candidates Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico.
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Overview

  • The Hobby School poll shows Ken Paxton at 38% to John Cornyn’s 31% in the GOP primary, with Wesley Hunt at 17% and 12% undecided; Jasmine Crockett leads James Talarico 47% to 39% among Democrats.
  • No Republican tops 50%, pointing to a likely May 26 runoff, where the survey finds Paxton ahead of Cornyn 51% to 40% in a head‑to‑head scenario.
  • Early voting begins Feb. 17 ahead of the March 3 primary, with the poll sampling 550 likely GOP and 550 likely Democratic primary voters and an approximate ±4-point margin of error for each party.
  • The Democratic contest has been roiled by a viral claim that Talarico called Colin Allred a 'mediocre Black man'; Allred rebuked Talarico and endorsed Crockett, while Talarico denies the characterization.
  • National players are weighing in, with Sen. Martin Heinrich endorsing Talarico and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC backing Crockett; Turning Point Action endorsed Paxton as President Trump has not endorsed, and some Republicans voice concerns about a Paxton nomination increasing general‑election risk and costs.