Overview
- In his most recent start on Wednesday, Skenes showed tentative progress by striking out six over five innings while allowing three runs on two hits and four walks.
- After back-to-back sub-2.00 seasons, his 2026 ERA has climbed to roughly 3.90 as a sustained midseason slide erased his early dominance.
- Statcast data show a clear loss of velocity this year, with his average fastball down to about 96.9 mph from roughly 98.8 mph as a rookie and 98.2 mph last season, and he has not regularly reached 98+ mph in recent starts.
- Underlying numbers paint a different picture: Skenes carries a 2.91 FIP, a roughly 2.94 xERA, and an elite K-BB% that indicate he still misses many bats and that poor defense and some bad luck have raised his ERA.
- Coaches and analysts point to several small, compounding issues—slightly altered mechanics noted by Driveline experts, fewer pitches in the zone, more hard contact and more home runs—that are being worked on and leave a plausible path for recovery that matters for Pittsburgh’s playoff push.