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Paul Skenes Loses Some Velocity as Pirates Insist He Is Healthy

A measurable drop in Skenes’s average fastball speed has coincided with an eight-start winless run that could affect Pittsburgh’s playoff push.

Overview

  • Skenes is 6-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 17 starts this season and has not recorded a win since May 12, a stretch that includes eight straight starts without a team victory.
  • Statcast and pitch-tracking data show Skenes’s average fastball has fallen to about 97.0 mph in 2026 from roughly 98.2 mph in 2025 and 98.8 mph in 2024, a change some hitters say has reduced his pitch ‘nastiness.’
  • Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Monday there is no evidence of a physical problem and described the dip in velocity as a common short-term regression rather than an injury.
  • Advanced metrics still paint Skenes as highly effective, with a 2.75 FIP, a 0.968 WHIP and a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio, suggesting his underlying performance remains better than his win total implies.
  • Skenes pitched for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic in March and some observers speculate that residual fatigue could play a role, a question the club and Skenes have not confirmed and will be watched as the season progresses.