Paris Poll Puts Grégoire in Front as Knafo Reaches 10%, Recasting Runoff Prospects

Overview

• The Cluster 17 poll conducted Jan. 28–31 and published Feb. 2 shows Emmanuel Grégoire at about 33% (+3 since November) and Rachida Dati at roughly 26% (-1), with a margin of error of 1.5–2.8 points.
• Sarah Knafo climbs to 10% (+4), crossing the legal threshold to qualify for the second round and introducing the possibility of a five‑way runoff if several lists stay above 10%.
• Pollster Jean‑Yves Dormagen says Knafo draws about one‑third of 2024 European RN voters and one‑quarter of LR voters, while RN’s Thierry Mariani slips to about 4%.
• Pierre‑Yves Bournazel holds around 14% for the presidential coalition, and LFI’s Sophia Chikirou is near 12% (-2) yet still positioned to clear the qualifying bar.
• Grégoire’s gains follow endorsements from Green leader David Belliard and communist Ian Brossat, as Dati is described as squeezed between a consolidated left and rivals to her right and center, prompting her call to rally others and her rejection of a tie‑up with Knafo.