Paris Appeal Court to Rule Whether Marine Le Pen Can Run in 2027 Presidential Race

Overview

• The Cour d'appel de Paris will deliver its judgment on Tuesday, July 7, that will determine if Marine Le Pen is legally eligible to stand in the 2027 presidential election by upholding, reducing, or overturning her first-instance penalties.
• Judges' choices over a multi-year inéligibilité or the imposition of an electronic bracelet matter politically because either outcome could bar Le Pen from running or make a national campaign impractical.
• The RN presented a united public front at a Liévin banquet on July 4 where Le Pen pledged to support Jordan Bardella 'with energy, conviction and confidence' if she is prevented from running and party strategists said they have rehearsed detailed succession and messaging plans.
• Recent polls put Bardella slightly ahead of Le Pen at about 35–36% versus 32–33% in voting-intention tests and centrist rivals view Bardella as the comparatively easier runoff opponent, which is shaping other campaigns' preparations.
• A switch from Le Pen to Bardella would change the RN's tone and coalition prospects because the two differ on economic liberalization, relations with the EU, immigration rhetoric, and public image, and the verdict will also affect how voters and rivals read the party's integrity after long-running probes into EU-funded assistants.