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Paris Agreement at 10: Durable Framework, Shortfall on 1.5 °C

Ten years on, the pact remains the global reference for climate policy, with 1.5 °C now widely seen as unattainable.

Overview

  • Adopted on December 12, 2015 by 195 states, the pact created legal duties to submit national climate plans and report progress in five‑year cycles.
  • Low‑emission investment now roughly doubles spending on fossil fuels, global EV sales approach one in five, and installed solar capacity far exceeds 2015 expectations.
  • Global emissions have not fallen overall as declines in Europe and North America are offset by growth in major emerging economies such as China and India.
  • Post‑Paris policies slowed the rise in emissions versus pre‑2015 projections, shifting estimated end‑century warming from about 4 °C to just under 3 °C.
  • Recent reviews, including the Belém summit, failed to secure a collective fossil‑fuel phase‑out, underscoring political resistance and calls for stronger action and finance.