Overview
- The Dec. 14–18 Paraná Pesquisas survey of 1,502 voters in 61 municipalities (margin of error 2.6 points) puts Campos at 53.1% and Lyra at 31.0%, a level indicating a potential first‑round win.
- Compared with August, Campos eased from 57% as Lyra rose from 24%, narrowing the gap from 33 to 22 points.
- In a simulated runoff, Campos would lead Lyra by 55.1% to 33.8%, with 11.2% choosing blank, null or undecided.
- Senate testing finds Humberto Costa generally ahead near 38% and appearing among the top two in every lineup assessed.
- In an alternative Senate scenario that includes Marília Arraes, she leads with 40.4% against Costa’s 36.4%.