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Palantir’s Lofty Valuation Meets Fresh Tests as Morgan Stanley Holds Line and New Defense Tie-Ups Land

Morgan Stanley says Palantir’s Ontology gives it a durable edge, with shares already priced for perfection.

Overview

  • Analysts at Morgan Stanley kept an equal-weight rating with a $205 target, noting the stock trades at about 64 times 2027 free cash flow and 38 times 2027 sales, which implies little room for error.
  • The bank points to Palantir’s Ontology as a hard-to-replicate foundation for operational AI, yet flags customer concentration and the risk that any slowdown could compress the multiple.
  • Investors look to May 11 for first‑quarter results after a blowout Q4 2025 showing 70% year‑over‑year revenue growth and 2026 guidance calling for roughly 61% growth with expanding margins.
  • Palantir announced a partnership with Keel Holdings to integrate Foundry and AIP into the U.S. Navy’s ShipOS initiative, and separately teamed with Nvidia on a sovereign AI reference architecture.
  • Skeptics highlight stock‑based compensation near 24% of revenue, scalability concerns from human‑intensive deployments, and historical data showing ultra‑high price‑to‑sales stocks rarely outperform over time.