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Palantir Pins Market Fate on Cash‑Flow Goal Ahead of Aug. 3 Earnings

Investors will watch free cash flow as the key test of CEO Alex Karp’s $15 billion–$18 billion two‑year forecast.

Overview

  • In late July Palantir reported Q1 2026 adjusted free cash flow of $925 million and adjusted EPS of $0.33, each roughly 150% higher year over year, and raised full‑year FCF guidance to $4.2 billion–$4.4 billion.
  • CEO Alex Karp told CNBC he expects Palantir to generate $15 billion–$18 billion in free cash flow within two years, a public target that has become the focal point of bullish and bearish valuations.
  • The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency withdrew a procurement solicitation after Palantir filed a bid protest, which was a procedural win for the company that also delays the contract timeline and keeps government procurement risk in play.
  • Shares trade in the low $120s, roughly 30% below their 2026 peak and well under the 200‑day moving average near $154, though the stock has nudged up about 5% in the past 30 days.
  • Q2 results on August 3 will make free cash flow the decisive metric for investors because it will either lend credibility to management’s aggressive targets or reinforce conservative valuation models that assume much lower growth.