Overview
- Optimus Capital projects headline CPI at 7.4% year-on-year for February, the highest in about 18 months, with a 0.7% monthly rise driven by electricity tariff adjustments and higher gold prices.
- The Ministry of Finance expects February inflation at 6–7% and maintains a 5–7% CPI range for FY26, citing exchange-rate stability, stronger remittances, improved fiscal balances and a pickup in large-scale manufacturing.
- Arif Habib Limited forecasts February CPI at 7.2% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month, with core inflation near 8% and pressure from food, transport and housing costs.
- Short-term inflation measured by the SPI rose 4.23% year-on-year in the week to Feb. 26, led by wheat flour, gas and electricity, while the index fell 0.54% week-on-week on sharp declines in perishables such as tomatoes, potatoes, chicken and onions.
- Analysts see inflation trending higher through June, with Optimus warning of 9–10% year-on-year by midyear on base effects, Ramadan seasonality, higher crude and positive fuel cost adjustments, though FY26 averages are still seen within the SBP’s 5–7% target.