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Pakistan Inflation Edges Up to 5.8% in January as SBP Holds Rates

Policymakers cite firm core inflation, signaling risk of a second‑half price rebound.

Overview

  • The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported headline CPI at 5.8% year on year in January with a 0.4% monthly increase, up from 5.6% in December.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan kept its policy rate at 10.5% in its first 2026 meeting, defying market expectations for a cut announced by Governor Jameel Ahmad.
  • Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly urged the central bank to lower borrowing costs to support economic activity and jobs.
  • The central bank said core inflation has steadied near 7.4% and warned overall inflation could exceed 7% in the fiscal year’s second half as growth is projected around 3.8% to 4.8%.
  • PBS data show sharp year‑on‑year declines in perishables such as tomatoes and potatoes, alongside notable increases in staples like wheat and sugar and higher gas charges, with electricity prices slightly lower versus a year ago.