Overview
- NOAA assigns a 62% chance that El Niño forms between June and August 2026, as WMO notes a clear but still uncertain signal due to the spring predictability barrier.
- Multimodel guidance shows rapid development with a potential peak in winter 2026–2027, with C3S/ECMWF upper-range outputs at or above +2°C even as NOAA puts the odds of a strong event in Oct–Dec at 33%.
- Recent westerly wind bursts generated an eastward-propagating subsurface Kelvin wave, with February readings near −0.5°C in Niño‑3.4 and +0.6°C in Niño‑1+2 indicating emerging surface warmth in the east.
- Mexico’s SMN/Conagua reports weakening La Niña and a 55% probability of ENSO‑neutral for May–July 2026, issuing advisory status and flagging possible rainfall pattern changes in southern states.
- Peru’s ENFEN keeps a Coastal El Niño alert as Produce awaits Imarpe’s Feb–Mar survey to decide the first anchoveta season in April, while the BCRP estimates a weak event would trim 0.1 percentage point from 2026 GDP and highlights risks to lemons, mangoes and grapes.