Overview
- - Oxford Economics now expects Argentina to grow about 2.4% in 2026 with inflation near 30%, citing higher global energy costs, subsidy rollbacks, and price resets that erode household income.
- - The IMF says hydrocarbon exporters such as Argentina gain from costlier oil and gas through stronger external accounts and fiscal receipts, yet it warns inflation will rise across the Americas and hit low‑income families hardest.
- - Forecasts diverge on the scale of the impact, with the IMF projecting about 3.5% growth for Argentina and roughly 25% inflation in 2026, while Oxford sees weaker growth and hotter prices.
- - Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have lifted crude and other inputs like gas and fertilizers, and one estimate cited in local coverage says $100 oil would shift more than $1 trillion a year from importers to exporters.
- - Regional analysis shows uneven effects inside Argentina, with oil‑producing provinces gaining from export and royalty income while non‑producing areas face higher fuel and farm costs that squeeze budgets and slow spending.