Overview
- The analysis estimates exposure rising from 1.54 billion people in 2010 (23% of the world) to about 3.79–3.8 billion in 2050 (41%) under a 2°C scenario.
- Projected hotspots include India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines, with major increases also flagged in Brazil, Venezuela, Paraguay, Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua.
- The study finds the largest jump in exposure occurs near the 1.5°C threshold, leading authors to urge early, significant measures and net‑zero development pathways.
- Energy demand is expected to shift with less heating in northern regions and sharply higher cooling needs in southern and tropical areas, with air‑conditioning use potentially overtaking heating by century’s end.
- Researchers report large relative increases in hotter days even in cooler countries, including gains of around 100% in Austria and Canada and up to 230% in Ireland, based on metrics using an 18°C baseline.