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yesterday

Oscars Prediction Markets Top $116 Million as Platforms Add Props and New Data Tie-In

Prices shifted with late-season buzz despite balloting closing on March 5.

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Leonardo DiCaprio and Timothée Chalamet, pictured with his girlfriend Kylie Jenner, are both up for best actor. DiCaprio’s One Battle After Another is the frontrunner for best picture on Kalshi

Overview

  • As of early March 13, about $116 million was in play across Kalshi ($54.8 million) and Polymarket ($61.4 million), with platforms projecting heavier weekend trading before the March 15 show.
  • Markets currently favor Michael B. Jordan for best actor after recent awards and publicity moved prices, while One Battle After Another leads best picture on both sites.
  • Kalshi reported $48.4 million in Oscar trading by March 10, far outpacing 2025, underscoring how this year’s awards have accelerated prediction-market growth.
  • New prop markets cover who will attend and what host Conan O’Brien may say on stage, with items ranging from studios and streamers to public figures, expanding ways to engage.
  • Under CFTC oversight, operators emphasize integrity measures—Kalshi uses surveillance and identity checks and bars Academy members from trading—even as critics question the growing sportsbook-ification of entertainment.