Overview
- Most recent polls put Péter Magyar’s Tisza ahead of Fidesz by wide margins, with aggregates near 49% to 39% and national surveys showing 38% to 29%, though roughly a quarter of voters remain undecided.
- President Donald Trump publicly called on Hungarians to reelect Viktor Orbán and Vice President J.D. Vance campaigned in Budapest, underscoring unusual outside involvement in the final stretch.
- On the Polymarket prediction site, about $8.9 million in wagers price Orbán’s chance of staying prime minister near 30%, with Tisza favored to win the most seats.
- Hungary’s electoral rules and redrawn districts can turn votes into seats in ways that favor Fidesz, and a record postal vote from nonresident citizens has historically leaned toward Orbán.
- Both camps accuse each other of interference and fraud as watchdogs flag media dominance by pro‑government outlets and reports of Russian influence efforts draw scrutiny and denials.