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Oracle's AI Cloud Boom Tests Cash Flow and Capital Plan Ahead of Earnings

Rapid GPU cloud demand has driven big revenue and a record contracted backlog, forcing heavy borrowing and large capex that now put Oracle's cash‑flow outlook under scrutiny.

Overview

  • Markets are watching Oracle's fiscal Q1 FY2027 earnings on Sept. 10 for proof that the company's AI backlog is converting into repeatable revenue and cash.
  • In June's quarter Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue rose about 93% to roughly $5.8 billion while Remaining Performance Obligations jumped to $638 billion, roughly $75 billion of which involve prepaid or customer‑supplied GPU deals.
  • The AI buildout has been capital intensive: fiscal 2026 capex surged to about $55.7 billion and free cash flow was negative roughly $23.7 billion, with management signaling up to $95 billion of capex for FY2027.
  • To fund the expansion Oracle raised roughly $43 billion of debt and $5 billion of equity in FY2026 and has guided roughly $40 billion more of debt and equity financing, including a $20 billion at‑the‑market program.
  • Analysts remain divided: many sell‑side firms keep high price targets and Buy ratings, yet the stock trades well below those targets and credit investors are seeking extra protection, making backlog conversion and near‑term cash flow the key risks to watch.