Overview
- Shares fell 11.7% in March and are down more than 23% in 2026, leaving the stock over 54% lower since mid‑September when reports of a roughly $300 billion OpenAI tie‑up surfaced.
- Oracle’s 5‑year CDS widened to about 120–150 basis points from under 50 bps before the OpenAI news, compared with roughly 45 bps for Alphabet.
- Market worries center on Oracle’s concentration risk and on OpenAI’s ability to secure funding and generate profits needed to sustain contracted demand.
- Nvidia reportedly committed $30 billion to OpenAI’s latest round after weighing a larger sum, and OpenAI is now reported to target $600 billion in compute spending by 2030.
- Oppenheimer upgraded Oracle to Outperform with a $185 target, citing potential EPS growth through 2030 and reduced financing risk following a $25 billion bond sale and a planned $40–$50 billion 2026 program that includes up to $20 billion in equity.