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Oracle Faces Earnings Test as AI Buildout Triggers Cash Strain and Reported Job Cuts

Wall Street wants proof that Oracle’s AI backlog will translate into cash flow.

Overview

  • Oracle reports fiscal Q3 after the close on March 10, with consensus calling for roughly $1.70–$1.72 in adjusted EPS on about $16.9 billion in revenue, and options pricing implying a potential 10% swing in the stock by week’s end.
  • Multiple outlets report plans to cut thousands of jobs — with some estimates at 20,000 to 30,000 — as Oracle tightens costs tied to its AI data‑center expansion, following disclosure of a 2026 restructuring plan of up to $1.6 billion with about $826 million recognized to date.
  • Capital needs remain front and center as Oracle pursues roughly $50 billion in FY26 capex and has discussed raising $45–$50 billion to fund the buildout, alongside total debt above $100 billion and about $248 billion in future operating lease commitments.
  • The AI thesis rests on converting a surging backlog into revenue, with remaining performance obligations reaching $523 billion last quarter, up 438% year over year, and investors zeroing in on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure growth and backlog conversion pace.
  • Tension over partnerships persists after Bloomberg reported an end to the Abilene, TexasStargate’ expansion with OpenAI; Oracle publicly rejected that account and said the site remains on track, as shares remain down more than 20% this year.