Overview
- Recent polls project the opposition bloc ahead overall while Likud remains the largest single party and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar has risen into the roughly 20–22 seat range.
- Jewish opposition parties do not reach the 61‑seat Knesset majority on their own and would need the roughly ten seats held by Arab parties or new alliances to form a government.
- Pollsters caution that Eisenkot’s growth may be approaching a ceiling and that merger scenarios or joint lists can materially shift projected seat totals.
- Support for centrist leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid has weakened in surveys, making post‑election mergers, defections, or bargaining more likely to determine who governs.
- Religious parties show steady strength with high expected chareidi turnout, and the leading Channel 12/Midgam poll used 504 respondents with a reported margin of error of ±4.4 points, underlining volatility in the race.