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OpenAI’s $1.4 Trillion AI Buildout Faces New $14 Billion Loss Projection

Leaked forecasts point to a $14 billion deficit in 2026, sharpening questions about the viability of the compute-to-revenue strategy.

Overview

  • Internal documents described by The Information project roughly $14 billion in losses for 2026, with multi‑year deficits reported rather than official guidance from OpenAI.
  • OpenAI has disclosed an eight‑year infrastructure commitment totaling $1.4 trillion to scale training capacity and data center buildout.
  • Executives have argued revenue will track compute growth, citing a tenfold rise in capacity from 2023 to 2025 alongside annualized revenue moving from about $2 billion to an expected $20 billion.
  • Competitive pressure is intensifying, with SimilarWeb data showing Google’s Gemini grew nearly 30% in November and December as OpenAI’s traffic declined 6%.
  • Rising infrastructure and energy costs remain central, and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella warned public support could erode if AI’s benefits fail to justify its power demands.