Overview
- Advisers presented OpenAI this week with two paths: pursue a 2026 IPO at a lower valuation or delay to 2027 to try to reach roughly a $1 trillion price, and the company has not settled on a timeline.
- OpenAI confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC on June 8 but has not started pre-IPO investor meetings or set firm dates for a roadshow.
- Markets reacted sharply to the deliberations, with SoftBank shares plunging about 12% on Friday because the delay would push back a key chance to monetize its roughly $64–65 billion commitment to OpenAI.
- Prediction markets and traders have repriced the race for megacap AI listings, boosting odds that rival Anthropic will reach public markets first and shifting expectations for an OpenAI announcement into early 2027.
- Advisers' caution reflects SpaceX’s recent volatile debut, OpenAI’s heavy compute commitments and cash burn, and the role of banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley in weighing pricing and demand for any offering.