Overview
- Seven producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed Sunday to lift June targets by 188,000 barrels per day in their first policy step since the UAE left on May 1.
- The increase is mostly on paper because the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with analysts estimating OPEC+ output sat about 9 million barrels per day below quota in March.
- OPEC+ named Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman in its statement and made no mention of the UAE, and the group set monthly check-ins with the next review on June 7.
- Outside the pact, the UAE is pushing its own plan to grow capacity toward about 5 million barrels per day by 2027 as ADNOC announced roughly $55 billion in new project awards and the country also exited the Arab exporters’ club OAPEC.
- The practical supply picture hinges on shipping through Hormuz, a narrow waterway that normally carries a large share of Gulf oil, so price swings are now tied more to security and diplomacy than to quota tweaks.