Overview
- OPEC’s 2026 World Oil Outlook raises its long-term estimate and projects world oil demand of 113.3 million barrels per day by 2030 and 124 million bpd by 2050, saying there is no sign of a demand peak through mid-century.
- The report attributes its stronger demand view to policy shifts that favor energy security and affordability, slower electric-vehicle uptake in parts of Europe, and U.S. policy changes that reduced support for renewables and fuel-efficiency measures.
- OPEC flags immediate supply strain from the Iran war that has cut Gulf exports and notes the United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC as a new market complication for member exports and revenues.
- The organisation assesses U.S. tight crude likely peaked in 2025 and expects only modest U.S. liquids growth to 2030, while calling for roughly US$17.7 trillion of upstream investment to support its production and demand profile.
- OPEC’s outlook stands in contrast to the IEA’s much lower mid-century demand estimate, a gap that could shape future oil prices, energy security policies, and consumer costs worldwide.