Overview
- A Reuters flow-data survey found OPEC production averaged 16.13 million barrels per day in May, the lowest monthly level since at least 2000.
- The drop was driven largely by a U.S. naval blockade and Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which sharply cut Iran's exports to a six-year low and disrupted Gulf shipments.
- The May total excludes the United Arab Emirates after its May 1 departure from OPEC, and the survey uses tanker and terminal flow data from LSEG, Kpler and industry sources rather than formal OPEC quotas.
- OPEC+ has raised formal production quotas since April, including a 188,000 bpd increase for July, but those increases have not translated into matching physical shipments because of security and export access limits.
- Output trends varied by country in May with reported declines for Saudi Arabia and Iran and higher output for Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria, and the situation highlights how a chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz can quickly sway global seaborne oil supplies and prices.