OPEC Lowers 2026 Demand Forecast as OPEC+ Produces Well Below Plan in June
Weaker short‑term demand expectations with large June output gaps leave markets focused on finding buyers for returning barrels.
Overview
- OPEC's July monthly report cut its 2026 global oil demand growth estimate to about 780,000 barrels per day and raised its 2027 growth forecast to roughly 1.94 million bpd.
- OPEC+ production in June came in far below targets with the alliance 7.111 million bpd under planned levels after voluntary cuts and compensation rules were applied.
- The seven OPEC+ countries that agreed to voluntary cuts produced 22.988 million bpd in June, which was about 6.56 million bpd below their agreed target.
- Country moves drove some of the gap: the UAE left OPEC/OPEC+ on May 1 and boosted June output by roughly 1.642 million bpd while Russia trimmed production by 61,000 bpd and remained about 834,000 bpd under quota.
- Market flows changed in June as reopened transit through the Strait of Hormuz freed previously stranded barrels, OPEC+ extended compensation deadlines to December 2026 and raised August quotas, and growing supply from non‑OPEC producers may limit price upside.