Overview
- OPEC+, which met Sunday, approved a second straight 206,000-barrels-per-day quota increase for May in a decision that members and analysts described as mostly on paper.
- The increase cannot translate into real barrels because the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for more than a month, choking Gulf exports through a route that normally carries about a fifth of global oil.
- Disruptions have sidelined an estimated 12–15 million barrels a day and driven Brent toward $109–$120, with JPMorgan warning prices could top $150 if flows stay blocked, raising costs for diesel and jet fuel.
- OPEC+ warned that attacks have damaged energy facilities and said repairs take time and money, and it stressed the need to protect shipping lanes to stabilize supply.
- Next steps include a May 3 review, and market watchers expect volatility to persist until tankers can safely transit Hormuz and damaged infrastructure and Russian export terminals recover.