Overview
- Seven OPEC+ members approved a 188,000 barrels per day quota increase for June in a video meeting Sunday, the first decision since the UAE left the group on May 1.
- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman took part in the decision and set monthly check-ins, with the next meeting scheduled for June 7.
- The increase is largely on paper because the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and Rystad Energy estimates March output ran about 9 million barrels per day below quotas.
- The UAE says its withdrawal reflects a sovereign strategy to grow output, with ADNOC planning about $55 billion in near-term projects and a push toward roughly 5 million barrels per day of capacity by 2027.
- Analysts say Abu Dhabi’s exit removes a key source of spare capacity and weakens OPEC+ leverage, while the group’s statement omitted any mention of the UAE to project stability.