OPAL Fuels Guides Higher for 2026 as Production Rises Despite Weaker RIN Prices

Overview

• OPAL projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $95–110 million and RNG output of 5.4–5.8 million MMBtu, with guidance assuming $15–20 million from 45Z credits and stable D3 RIN pricing.
• Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $90.2 million, roughly flat year over year, while RNG production rose 28% as a 22% drop in realized D3 RIN prices created an estimated $33 million headwind.
• Fourth-quarter 2025 results improved to $99.8 million in revenue and $34.2 million in adjusted EBITDA, driven by higher production and recognition of 45Z credits.
• Liquidity strengthened through a $180 million Series A preferred facility from Fortistar, repayment of a $100 million preferred, and draws on senior secured debt, leaving about $184 million in total liquidity and roughly $160 million earmarked for in‑construction projects.
• Operations advanced with facility utilization rising from roughly 70% to the 80% level and the Atlantic site ramping faster than prior projects, while management shifts capital toward Fuel Station Services after 22% segment growth and cautions on winter impacts and EPA RVO timing.