Overview
- The ONS, which released new projections Tuesday, now sees the UK rising from 69.3 million in 2024 to 71.0 million by 2034 and peaking near 72.5 million in 2054 before declining.
- Net migration is the only source of growth, adding 2.2 million people by 2034, while natural change removes 450,000 as deaths outnumber births from 2026.
- The downgrade follows a steep migration fall, with net migration estimated at 204,000 in the year to June 2025, leading the ONS to cut its long‑run assumption to 230,000 a year from 340,000.
- Peaks arrive sooner outside England, with Northern Ireland in 2031, Scotland in 2033, Wales in 2035, and England in 2056.
- People of pension age are set to rise from 12.4 million to 14.2 million by 2034, which experts say will strain the state pension and NHS as fewer workers support more retirees.